New unemployment data was released today...
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: AUGUST 2002
Both payroll employment and the unemployment rate were little changed in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains in services, government, and construction were largely offset by losses in manufacturing and retail trade.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
Both the unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, 8.1 million, were little changed over the month. The jobless rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), adult women (4.9 percent), teenagers (17.2 percent), whites (5.1 percent), blacks (9.6 percent), and Hispanics (7.5 percent)--showed little or no change.
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"little changed"
The BLS is judicious in its description. The jobless rate was the lowest in 5 months, and lower than any forecast of which I am aware. On its face, that's a pretty good result. The fact that it is based on a 429,000 rise in employment reported in the household survey, when the more reliable establishments survey showed only 39,000 new jobs, makes the 2 tenths decline in the jobless rate highly dubious. Fewer industries added jobs in August than laid them off, the same as in every month this year other than May, and the ratio has been getting worse ever since. The private sector actually lost jobs. Thus "little changed" is, probably inadvertantly on the part of BLS, a graceful way of accounting for the fact that the jobless rate dropped but the labor situation stinks.